By Republican Strategist and Grandson of the 37th President of the United States,Christopher Nixon Cox
There has been a lot of intimidation and bluster blowing in from north of the 38th parallel this week. We have seen missile launches into the Sea of Japan, purported testing of a nuclear device and a declaration announcing an intention to end North Korean observance of the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War. Given North Korea’s history of lawlessness and wanton disregard for even minimum global standards of constructive behavior, this recent international tantrum is a potentially worrisome development and one that, no matter what the North’s actual intentions, absolutely must be taken seriously by the United States and UN.
Because of the immense secrecy that shrouds the North Korean state, it is almost impossible to determine what the regime’s bottom line is even after more than six years of the six party talks. However, there are indications that what we have seen with North Korea this week is not the beginning of an international crisis, but instead a desperate bluff by North Korea’s leaders intent on preserving their internal political survival.
Recent history provides some insight into the rationale for North Korea’s development of its nuclear program. North Korea operates much like the mafia (in fact, I like to think of North Korea as a “Mafia State”). North Korea likes to use its nuclear weapons program to shake down the West for hard currency and other aid that props up the odd hereditary hermit regime that rules the country. Whenever the North needs aid or currency, they test launch a few missiles, fire up their nuclear facilities at Yongbyon and jawbone the US and South Korea about threats to the North’s sovereignty and security. In the 1990s, the typical US response was to condemn the North’s actions, engage in frantic diplomacy and ultimately reach a deal to give billions of dollars in aid in return for the North’s cessation of their nuclear weapons program. This is just garden variety extortion played out against an international backdrop.
Given the past success of this extortion strategy, it is not unlikely that the North has decided to restart its nuclear program in the hopes of extorting more hard currency from the West. What better time to begin such a strategy than with a new administration in Washington that is intent on engaging countries that were previously isolated by the Bush Administration. At the very least, North Korea can test the Obama Administration and see how far it will bend.
An even more likely scenario is that North Korea is possibly facing a succession crisis and by restarting the weapons program, Kim Jong-Il is strengthening the hand of his third and youngest son Kim Jong-un. In the totalitarian state that is North Korea, the military is a critical player in choosing the next leader. It is essential for Kim Jong-Il to convince the military his regime will survive the transition to his son and having a nuclear program is a strong demonstration of its power and security.
Even if these two rationales are not convincing, China’s actions are. China maintains a lot of power because China is North Korea’s lone window on the world and one of its only trading partners. It is not in China’s interest to have a nuclear North Korea on its border that would destabilize North East Asia, threaten global stability and endanger China’s relationship with the United States. The absence of urgency by China this week indicates that the North’s actions are more about internal politics and survival than war.
This is not to say that we should not be concerned by North Korea’s actions. The US must lead and take strong actions to reduce the threat that North Korea presents to our allies in the region and the world. But I see North Korea’s recent actions more as a sign of internal weakness preceding a possible succession of power. It will be up to the US, China and our allies to see if the weakness is great enough to end the reign of the ruling Kim family and bring North Korea into the concert of nations in an orderly fashion.
**Christopher Nixon Cox is a lawyer and Republican strategist residing in New York City and the grandson of the 37th President of the United States, Richard Nixon. He most recently was the Executive Director for NY State for the John McCain campaign.
The great one; the one with the glistening pecks; the one that is all knowing and all powerful . . . I speak of the man for whom nuclear bombs are but a trifling annoyance . . . no more than a horse fly buzzing about. The great Obama will deliver us from this and all other evils. Relax; you have a god working for you now. What could this bothersome NK do besides blow up Los Angeles? Oh, and by the way, it is a good idea to move away from major population centers and get a combat shotgun and learn how to use it really, really well. Alas, it seems that judgment day is upon us and we had better perform exceptionally well or, we'll be slapped right out of existence.
Limited to 1500 characters to help keep the debate going? How about if Fox posts comments within 20 minutes of submission? It's virtually impossible to have any kind of debate without losing interest and moving along to another Website.
WSJ reports today, "The possible defensive measures are expected to be discussed in a series of meetings next week by a high-level U.S. delegation traveling to Tokyo, Seoul, and Bejing led by James Steinberg, the deputy secretary of State. The group is also likely to visit Moscow before week's end, officials said."
How many Chinese citizens depend on income from manufactured goods and agricultural product shipped into North Korea? Internal politics aside, Beijing must realize this and find other users for that product.
Cease being NK's only window into the world - it might have a chilling affect on the succession crisis.
You presume Kim Jong Il is capable of rational thought. He may not be, in which case hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps millions, are going to die. We aren't talking about Hiroshima's atomic bomb anymore, but a weapon many times more powerful.
May God Help us. Can anyone tell me why our new president shouldn't wax pre-emptive on this? Enough already with the diplomacy... it hasn't worked through how many different administrations. There is only one answer to this threat... a pre-emptive strike on every aspect of the North Korean ( and Iranian as well) nuclear development facilities. It is justified. It is proper. It is time.
I agree with Bender. IMO, the threat is in weapons sold to other countries, specifically Iran.
The threat is against Israel and maybe Iraq. The rest is political posturing.
They just want a piece of the pie too. Their just a little more creative with their ideas on getting their bailouts. If its not the US that bails them out under negotiations for them to cease their nuclear ambitions, then it will be some other radical regime that will happily pay them to aquire wmds. N. Korea needs to find a more peacefull way to put food on the table.
Of course they want money. If they don't get it from us, then it will be from Iran who would like nothing more then to "erase Israel off the map," or some other radical regime seeking WMDs. One of the poorest countries in the world with a secretive & radical government that bullies the world to bail them out. Funny how it isn't too different from some of the banks that just got their bailout money recently. I guess China is waiting for us to spend more of their money again.
Anyone else wonder why it is Gates who goes out and gives the "official warning" from the U.S.? Shouldn't that be the leader of our country out there being the tough guy? More evidence that a portion of America has elected a Man-Child who is in over his head and continues to pander to his base, and continues to be a campaigner and NOT the President. Apparently we're upset about NK having nukes but it's fine if Iran has them, huh? Good grief, we're getting what we "paid for"!
again foxnews is out of control sotomayor is not to make laws she shall be there to listen speak talk about and be justice not a judge but a person that swallows all and at one point spill her beans she is not alone in any of this so why continue
And where in this world has it to be the United States of America is the BEING of any country BEING them Whom appointed the end of our world to be let's see we all want it to end because of what country
The only good news is that their first long range missiles would only reach California and probably help release all the stored up energy in the earthquake fault system. California could then be rebuilt on safer ground and new residents would create a balanced state instead of the Hollywood liberalism that helped give North Korea missiles anyway.
They know our dollar is barely worth the paper on which it's printed, so cash won't work.
sanctions are a sick joke. they know we don't have the power anymore, or the backing, while on the other hand, they have the same China that now owns uis through debt. If I were them, I would tell us to go kiss off too !
Being practical, nothing can be done about it. This road has been traveled before, without success. China has supported them with essentials; any sanctions will not have great effect, and they are lead by a nut job who since has a suffered a stroke. Chinese support is the only answer.
The Obama Administration’s lackadaisical attitude toward North Korea should scare the heck out of all Americans. The writer doesn’t get it. You don’t have to hit your target “point blank” with a Nuke to kill millions of people. This is serious stuff and the Obama Administration better wake up fast. Or one of these tests will be the “real” thing.
Bluffing? Well . . . hmmm. They arn't going to march on South Korea anytime soon. The bluff, if ther is one, is about the sale of a nuclear weapon to another party for, what else, money. Is N. Korea going to put an ICBM on Wahsington tomorrow? Alask? Japan? No. Will they sell a nuclear weapon to someone? Likely . . . very likely. If that happens, we have a bad-hair day.
Who gave the US authority to decide which regimes to end and which to leave intact?
And why does the world always accept this hegemony?
North Korea is a country under oppression by a cruel dictator and no one wants them to have nuclear weapons.
But did the US not allow Pakistan to acquire them? And Israel? And if you end the reign of Kim Jong Il perhaps you will be removing the cement that keeps that country together. Centralized governments are known to be very stable. Democracy has made countries like Kenya unstable. Ousting dictators did very little for Somalia and more recently Iraq. I suggest the Us stop playing class prefect with the world.
I beg to disagree with your commentary - North Korea is not bluffing. Kim Jong Il has one driving purpose in his life - to accomplish what his father failed at, conquering South Korea. Kim was born a repulsive little pygmy, and has lived in his father's shadow all his life. Kim is an insecure little tyrant who wants to go down in history as the great man who "reunited" Korea. (Translation - the man who conquered and enslaved South Korea.) He will never back down from that goal.
Pyongyang's nuclear drive is for one purpose - to give them the means to hold the US and the rest of the world hostage when they invade South Korea. The minute Kim is able to launch nuclear missiles into US territory, South Korea will be invaded with a million North Korean soldiers and one of the world's largest chemical artillery arsenals.
Kim's nuclear arsenal is no bluff. He will use them against us in the extremely mistaken belief that we won't retaliate with a nuclear strike for fear of provoking Russia and China.
And America will continue to sit in denial until it's too late.
FOX News Channel's "Team Washington" is about all things politics. Check back daily for web exclusives from Special Report's Bret Baier, quotes of the day, viewer votes and more.
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Bender
The great one; the one with the glistening pecks; the one that is all knowing and all powerful . . . I speak of the man for whom nuclear bombs are but a trifling annoyance . . . no more than a horse fly buzzing about. The great Obama will deliver us from this and all other evils. Relax; you have a god working for you now. What could this bothersome NK do besides blow up Los Angeles? Oh, and by the way, it is a good idea to move away from major population centers and get a combat shotgun and learn how to use it really, really well. Alas, it seems that judgment day is upon us and we had better perform exceptionally well or, we'll be slapped right out of existence.
ERIN TARVER
WATCH OBAMAINATION UNTO DESOLATION BREAK OUT THE CHECKBOOK AND CHARGE IT TO THE WORKING POOR.
F.F.
Limited to 1500 characters to help keep the debate going? How about if Fox posts comments within 20 minutes of submission? It's virtually impossible to have any kind of debate without losing interest and moving along to another Website.
krgard
WSJ reports today, "The possible defensive measures are expected to be discussed in a series of meetings next week by a high-level U.S. delegation traveling to Tokyo, Seoul, and Bejing led by James Steinberg, the deputy secretary of State. The group is also likely to visit Moscow before week's end, officials said." How many Chinese citizens depend on income from manufactured goods and agricultural product shipped into North Korea? Internal politics aside, Beijing must realize this and find other users for that product. Cease being NK's only window into the world - it might have a chilling affect on the succession crisis.
SlimButtes
You presume Kim Jong Il is capable of rational thought. He may not be, in which case hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps millions, are going to die. We aren't talking about Hiroshima's atomic bomb anymore, but a weapon many times more powerful. May God Help us. Can anyone tell me why our new president shouldn't wax pre-emptive on this? Enough already with the diplomacy... it hasn't worked through how many different administrations. There is only one answer to this threat... a pre-emptive strike on every aspect of the North Korean ( and Iranian as well) nuclear development facilities. It is justified. It is proper. It is time.
Norma
I agree with Bender. IMO, the threat is in weapons sold to other countries, specifically Iran. The threat is against Israel and maybe Iraq. The rest is political posturing.
Mr. Politics
They just want a piece of the pie too. Their just a little more creative with their ideas on getting their bailouts. If its not the US that bails them out under negotiations for them to cease their nuclear ambitions, then it will be some other radical regime that will happily pay them to aquire wmds. N. Korea needs to find a more peacefull way to put food on the table.
Mr_Politics
Of course they want money. If they don't get it from us, then it will be from Iran who would like nothing more then to "erase Israel off the map," or some other radical regime seeking WMDs. One of the poorest countries in the world with a secretive & radical government that bullies the world to bail them out. Funny how it isn't too different from some of the banks that just got their bailout money recently. I guess China is waiting for us to spend more of their money again.
chem999
Anyone else wonder why it is Gates who goes out and gives the "official warning" from the U.S.? Shouldn't that be the leader of our country out there being the tough guy? More evidence that a portion of America has elected a Man-Child who is in over his head and continues to pander to his base, and continues to be a campaigner and NOT the President. Apparently we're upset about NK having nukes but it's fine if Iran has them, huh? Good grief, we're getting what we "paid for"!
Pirate Pennsylvania
again foxnews is out of control sotomayor is not to make laws she shall be there to listen speak talk about and be justice not a judge but a person that swallows all and at one point spill her beans she is not alone in any of this so why continue
Pirate Pennsylvania
And where in this world has it to be the United States of America is the BEING of any country BEING them Whom appointed the end of our world to be let's see we all want it to end because of what country
ken heer
The only good news is that their first long range missiles would only reach California and probably help release all the stored up energy in the earthquake fault system. California could then be rebuilt on safer ground and new residents would create a balanced state instead of the Hollywood liberalism that helped give North Korea missiles anyway.
msbets
I guess we just let them huff and puff till they blow our house down.
webprowler
They know our dollar is barely worth the paper on which it's printed, so cash won't work. sanctions are a sick joke. they know we don't have the power anymore, or the backing, while on the other hand, they have the same China that now owns uis through debt. If I were them, I would tell us to go kiss off too !
Roy011
Being practical, nothing can be done about it. This road has been traveled before, without success. China has supported them with essentials; any sanctions will not have great effect, and they are lead by a nut job who since has a suffered a stroke. Chinese support is the only answer.
FreedomAtStake
The Obama Administration’s lackadaisical attitude toward North Korea should scare the heck out of all Americans. The writer doesn’t get it. You don’t have to hit your target “point blank” with a Nuke to kill millions of people. This is serious stuff and the Obama Administration better wake up fast. Or one of these tests will be the “real” thing.
Bender
Bluffing? Well . . . hmmm. They arn't going to march on South Korea anytime soon. The bluff, if ther is one, is about the sale of a nuclear weapon to another party for, what else, money. Is N. Korea going to put an ICBM on Wahsington tomorrow? Alask? Japan? No. Will they sell a nuclear weapon to someone? Likely . . . very likely. If that happens, we have a bad-hair day.
FokusLop
Good article, Thanks. my name Philip.
Kingsley
Who gave the US authority to decide which regimes to end and which to leave intact? And why does the world always accept this hegemony? North Korea is a country under oppression by a cruel dictator and no one wants them to have nuclear weapons. But did the US not allow Pakistan to acquire them? And Israel? And if you end the reign of Kim Jong Il perhaps you will be removing the cement that keeps that country together. Centralized governments are known to be very stable. Democracy has made countries like Kenya unstable. Ousting dictators did very little for Somalia and more recently Iraq. I suggest the Us stop playing class prefect with the world.
TPick
I beg to disagree with your commentary - North Korea is not bluffing. Kim Jong Il has one driving purpose in his life - to accomplish what his father failed at, conquering South Korea. Kim was born a repulsive little pygmy, and has lived in his father's shadow all his life. Kim is an insecure little tyrant who wants to go down in history as the great man who "reunited" Korea. (Translation - the man who conquered and enslaved South Korea.) He will never back down from that goal. Pyongyang's nuclear drive is for one purpose - to give them the means to hold the US and the rest of the world hostage when they invade South Korea. The minute Kim is able to launch nuclear missiles into US territory, South Korea will be invaded with a million North Korean soldiers and one of the world's largest chemical artillery arsenals. Kim's nuclear arsenal is no bluff. He will use them against us in the extremely mistaken belief that we won't retaliate with a nuclear strike for fear of provoking Russia and China. And America will continue to sit in denial until it's too late.