By Republican Strategist and Grandson of the 37th President of the United States, Christopher Nixon Cox

There has been a lot of intimidation and bluster blowing in from north of the 38th parallel this week.  We have seen missile launches into the Sea of Japan, purported testing of a nuclear device and a declaration announcing an intention to end North Korean observance of the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War.  Given North Korea’s history of lawlessness and wanton disregard for even minimum global standards of constructive behavior, this recent international tantrum is a potentially worrisome development and one that, no matter what the North’s actual intentions, absolutely must be taken seriously by the United States and UN.

Because of the immense secrecy that shrouds the North Korean state, it is almost impossible to determine what the regime’s bottom line is even after more than six years of the six party talks. However, there are indications that what we have seen with North Korea this week is not the beginning of an international crisis, but instead a desperate bluff by North Korea’s leaders intent on preserving their internal political survival.

Recent history provides some insight into the rationale for North Korea’s development of its nuclear program.  North Korea operates much like the mafia (in fact, I like to think of North Korea as a “Mafia State”). North Korea likes to use its nuclear weapons program to shake down the West for hard currency and other aid that props up the odd hereditary hermit regime that rules the country.  Whenever the North needs aid or currency, they test launch a few missiles, fire up their nuclear facilities at Yongbyon and jawbone the US and South Korea about threats to the North’s sovereignty and security.  In the 1990s, the typical US response was to condemn the North’s actions, engage in frantic diplomacy and ultimately reach a deal to give billions of dollars in aid in return for the North’s cessation of their nuclear weapons program.  This is just garden variety extortion played out against an international backdrop.

Given the past success of this extortion strategy, it is not unlikely that the North has decided to restart its nuclear program in the hopes of extorting more hard currency from the West.  What better time to begin such a strategy than with a new administration in Washington that is intent on engaging countries that were previously isolated by the Bush Administration.  At the very least, North Korea can test the Obama Administration and see how far it will bend.

An even more likely scenario is that North Korea is possibly facing a succession crisis and by restarting the weapons program, Kim Jong-Il is strengthening the hand of his third and youngest son Kim Jong-un.  In the totalitarian state that is North Korea, the military is a critical player in choosing the next leader.  It is essential for Kim Jong-Il to convince the military his regime will survive the transition to his son and having a nuclear program is a strong demonstration of its power and security.

Even if these two rationales are not convincing, China’s actions are. China maintains a lot of power because China is North Korea’s lone window on the world and one of its only trading partners. It is not in China’s interest to have a nuclear North Korea on its border that would destabilize North East Asia, threaten global stability and endanger China’s relationship with the United States.  The absence of urgency by China this week indicates that the North’s actions are more about internal politics and survival than war.

This is not to say that we should not be concerned by North Korea’s actions.  The US must lead and take strong actions to reduce the threat that North Korea presents to our allies in the region and the world.  But I see North Korea’s recent actions more as a sign of internal weakness preceding a possible succession of power.  It will be up to the US, China and our allies to see if the weakness is great enough to end the reign of the ruling Kim family and bring North Korea into the concert of nations in an orderly fashion.

**Christopher Nixon Cox is a lawyer and Republican strategist residing in New York City and the grandson of the 37th President of the United States, Richard Nixon. He most recently was the Executive Director for NY State for the John McCain campaign.