By Republican Strategist and Grandson of the 37th President of the United States, Christopher Nixon Cox

This week, New Jersey Republicans will choose their candidate to challenge Governor Jon Corzine this fall.  If the polls are at all close to being accurate, in all likelihood, U.S. Attorney Chris Christie will turn aside a challenge from Mayor Steve Lonegan and move on to what looks like a very promising race for Governor.

In a year with few national political elections, the New Jersey race will be viewed closely along with the Virginia Governor’s race for possible signs for the 2010 midterm elections.  For what it’s worth, in 1993, Republicans rode a wave of anti-tax anger to win the New Jersey Governor’s race.  With additional wins by the conservative George Allen in Virginia and even Rudy Giuliani for mayor of New York City, it was clear that something was brewing in the country and Democratic control of the Congress would be imperiled in what would become the political tsunami of 1994.

Fast-forward to 2009 and many of the same elements are in place.  Just like in 1993, conservatives across the country are up in arms about increased taxes and rapidly expanding government.  Specifically to New Jersey, voters are extremely upset about a Governor who could not balance a budget in good times (hurricane ravaged Louisiana being the only other state unable to balance their budget in 2006) and a state that has too many ethically challenged politicians.

Enter Chris Christie.  As a corruption busting State Attorney, Chris Christie prosecuted over 130 corrupt New Jersey politicians – Republicans and Democrats alike.  As Governor, Christie has promised to enact sweeping, across the board income tax cuts to spur growth and created jobs in New Jersey.  It was a similar plan that led to Christine Todd Whitman’s election to Governor in 1993.

So far, New Jersey voters are responding well to Christie.  In poll after poll, Christie maintains near double digit leads over Governor Corzine who is having a very difficult time cracking the 40% mark.  Given that Corzine is the incumbent, this is a very bad sign because if a majority of voters is undecided or opposed to Corzine after almost 9 years in elective office (almost four as governor), it would take a herculean effort for them to change their mind and become supportive of the Governor.  All this has led Republicans to be very optimistic about their chances this fall.

However, the good early news for Republicans should not be taken as conclusive.  Republicans in New Jersey tend to start off strong, but have problems closing the deal with voters.  The key number to look at over the summer will be the crucial 50% mark in polls.  Whoever the Republican nominee is must be getting above 50% in head to head polling match-ups with Governor Corzine to avert the losing fate of recent Republican campaigns.  That will demonstrate that the Republican nominee is winning independents who historically have given late support to Democrats.

Also not to be underestimated is Governor Corzine’s practically unlimited bank account.  Due to his success as a Wall Street investment banker, Governor Corzine will have the resources to spend tens of millions of dollars in an effort to improve his image.

While such a financial advantage normally is the difference in an election, this year may be different.  Governor Corzine has never been very popular in New Jersey and his reputation as a Wall Street banker may be reinforced as he tries to spend his way to another election victory.

So, New Jersey Republicans have much to be excited about.  But, to win, the Republican nominee must take a hard stand against excessive government spending and taxation that is driving jobs out of New Jersey.  Add to that a strong argument for being able to run government competently without corruption and New Jersey will have the makings of the beginning of the Republican resurgence in the north east.

**Christopher Nixon Cox is a lawyer and Republican strategist residing in New York City and the grandson of the 37th President of the United States, Richard Nixon. He most recently was the Executive Director for NY State for the John McCain campaign.