The day after the election, my Dad was mad. He said, "You know who lost the election for Mayor? Obama!" he said not waiting for an answer. I was worried that senility had come for my Dad in the night. Barack Obama wasn't running for Mayor of New York City. That pseudo contest was between incumbent Michael Bloomberg and challenger Bill Thompson.
It turns out, my Dad was convinced that if the President had spent as much time stumping for Thompson as he did for "everybody else" Thompson would've won. It's easy to believe that especially given how close the race was. Apparently $100 million doesn't buy as much of a margin as you'd think. But Obama campaigned for the governors of New Jersey and Virginia, and they both lost. Extrapolating that out, it’s conceivable that if Obama had endorsed Thompson more vigorously, he could have lost by an even wider margin.
Republicans are cooing that this is a big win for them. And quite frankly they needed it. The Grand Old Party just hasn't been itself since the last presidential election. They are going through an identity crisis of pubescent proportions. Like a desperate 30 something -- the cockiness of their 20s a distant memory -- signing up on E-Harmony, they've been looking for something real to hold onto. But is this the big chink in The Obama Mystique they've been so desperately looking for? It could be.
It's a gross miscalculation to think that everyone in the Democratic party can wrap themselves in the cloak of change and ride the wave to elected office. The losses in Virginia and New Jersey prove that charisma isn't always a tradeable asset. It's like that really cute guy who ambles over, chats you up, and then asks you to go out with his not so cute friend whom you didn't notice over at the bar drooling in your general direction. It's the Trojan Horse, Cyrano de Bergerac, bait and switch. And the voters responded in TLC fashion, "No, I don't want no scrubs!" (The grammar checker on my computer insists that this sentence should read, “any” scrubs, but I’ll risk the grammatical error to preserve the intent of the artist.)
I love Barack, but don't misconstrue that for total agreement. I'm still way burnt that the First Dog isn't a mutt and I'm getting tired of hitting the snooze button on health care. That said, I dig Obama, not the Democratic party. There's a reason why I'm still a registered Independent. It helps me keep a healthy level of skepticism of both parties, and not drink too deeply of the ever-changing flavors of called they're pedaling to whomever might be listening at the moment.
In the New York City Mayoral election I was neither delighted by nor interested in either of the candidates. Bloomberg's third term power grab with the help of the City Council was nothing short of disgusting. His money scared off all possible challengers except Thompson. I wondered more than once if Thompson was brave or just plain crazy. Perhaps it was all one big show for the Public’s benefit. The election results already predetermine, the slim margin of victory thrown in for dramatic effect. But that's a little too conspiracy-theory even for me.
The pervasive feeling among the people I talked to about Thompson was, "Is he the best the Democratic Party has to offer? Really? Seriously?" I'm sure he's a nice, hard-working man. Even Mayor Bloomberg had occasion to comment that he was excellent in his job as Comptroller, but you can't fake chemistry.
Maybe Barack didn't campaign harder for Thompson because, deep down he knew it wouldn't do any good. With 2010 looming, big political promises still to keep, and the Republicans feeling good after their election day make over, maybe President Obama needs to keep a little charisma in reserve for himself.
Conservative activists ... those Tea Partiers ... may not find the chuckles from Florida's Republican Governor very funny.
In an interview Monday in Ft. Lauderdale, I told Crist conservative grassroots activists ... emboldened by their impact on the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district had announced Crist was among their top targets for 2010.
That's when Crist laughed.
I jumped in and said, "I'm glad that you can keep your sense of humor about this."
"Oh, I do", Crist answered.
"They think they can do what they did Scozzafava."
Done laughing, the Governor explained, "it is interesting I think. There is a lot of intrigue going on. Really when it gets down to people voting on Election Day what's important is what you have done, what you stand for and what you believe in."
Crist believes it's hard to get to the political right of him. He rattles off his positions: pro-gun, pro-death penalty, a tax-cutter AND a budget cutter. He had other advantages. Crist is a very good fund-raiser. ($6M cash on hand at the end of September.) Few candidates work a crowd ... ANY crowd as thoroughly and enthusiastically as Charlie Crist. And remember, he's Governor...which proves he can win a state-wide campaign.
But for his conservative detractors, like Everett Wilkinson, the state for the Florida Tea Party movement there is the federal Stimulus package.
Wilkinson calls the 787-billion dollar spending package "generational theft"...and clearly out-of-bounds for anyone who calls themselves a conservative."
"He came out in February and supported the largest spending plan ever... and that has been a complete failure where he should have stood," says Wilkinson.
What was Wilkinson and his fellow activist prepared to do about Crist crossing the line to endorse the Stimulus package? They aim to drive Crist from the Republican primary set for next August.
The man who stands to benefit from any Sunshine State conservative up-rising would be Marco Rubio...Crist's main challenger in the primary.
Rubio trails Crist by wide margins in cash-on-hand ($6M to less than $1M for Rubio) ... in statewide polling and in name recognition. What Rubio has...is an ability to draw an impressive array of conservative supporters. Karl Rove self-reported his donation to Rubio. There was also the cover story on National Review two months ago.
The former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives is just 38-years-old. Still, Rubio will not be deterred by those who've told him he should wait for another year and another seat. And Rubio sees Republicans disappointed by Crist's perceived departures from GOP doctrine as an avenue for him to win.
" This country already has a Democratic party. It doesn't need two Democratic parties," says Rubio.
Silent in all this is Florida's most influential Republican, former Governor Jeb Bush. He has not endorsed any candidate in this race.
For Florida's Tea Partiers, they believe in the end ... they'll be the ones smiling.
Says Wilkinson, "I think the tea party movement has just begun and we're gonna continue to grow and wake America up."
The state of Arkansas is run by a popular Democratic governor and predominantly Democratic legislature. The congressional delegation is made up of one Republican U.S. Representative, three Democratic ones and two Democratic U.S. Senators. But if you ask folks around here, most will describe their state as conservative. After all, they chose Senator John McCain over Barack Obama by 20 percent in 2008. President Obama did not make Arkansas a campaign stop last year, and everyone we interviewed on this story mentioned it. He clearly didn't need it to win, but he may need Arkansas in 2010. That's because Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln is running to keep her seat in Washington and her opponents are talking like they can already taste the sweet victory.
Doyle Webb, Chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party predicts, "This seat will change hands next year. Arkansans are ready for a change, Senator Lincoln has not been the United States Senator that they thought she was when she was elected. She's drank too much of that Potomac River water and she's forgot what it is to be an Arkansan, and become more of a Washitonian". Senator Lincoln rejects that notion. While she acknowledged in an interview with us that, "2010 is a gonna be a tough election year," Lincoln said, "it always is when you run midterm of a new administration. I did it in 1994 when our own Bill Clinton...had just won the presidency, it was midterm of his first term. And it's always difficult."
Adding to the Senator's challenge, is the debate on healthcare reform. Dr. Art English a professor with The University of Arkansas at Little Rock Political Science department says, "I actually think she'll win re-election but it may be a bit of a struggle. But right now I think with the health care debate, of course she's been right in the vortex of that because of her re-election."
Senator Lincoln says she does not support a government run, government funded option, but says the country needs to reform its health care system. In its current version, the health care reform bill introduced by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, is not popular with Arkansans. This state has the second largest senior citizen population in the country (Florida is first). Concerns about potential Medicare cuts and increased taxes prompted a group called, 60plus.org to run TV ads appealing to Senator Lincoln.
She's in a tough spot: does she go with national party loyalty? Or cast a vote that reflects the constituents back home? Either way, she loses something. What Senator Lincoln does seem to get is the impatience growing around the goals of this administration. She told us, "People's expectations have been high and most of them know that we don't move at breakneck speeds in Washington. But unfortunately when expectations go up, people want to see the results, and I want to bring them results, but I want to make sure that it's positive and it's what's right for Arkansas, it's what's right for the country".
Election day 2010 is not only a year away, it's an eternity away in political time. A lot can happen, and probably will.
Voters in upstate New York hit the polls today in the wake of whirlwind developments shaking up the race for the 23rd Congressional district's open seat.
Two very different candidates are left standing in this battle- Democrat Bill Owens and the Conservative Party Candidate Doug Hoffman.
Republican Dede Scozzafava pulled out and the repercussions are still echoing.
Democrat Bill Owens picked up her endorsement and garnered last minute backing from organized labor- a vote was split before Scozzafava, who's husband is a union leader, pulled from the contest.
Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, has grassroots support that helped him climb up in the polls.
Hoffman is a pro-life fiscal conservative who promises to cut taxes and reduce government spending. His campaign has the backing of Tea Party activists and prominent conservatives, like Fred Thompson and Sarah Palin.
The Republican National Committee first endorsed Scozzafava but, were quick to throw their backing to Hoffman when she left the race- the RNC and the National Republican Congressional Committee have made 140,000 calls on Hoffman's behalf since Sunday.
Hitting the polls early this morning, Owens says voters have a clear choice.
"We can go backward to the Bush agenda which includes tax cuts for the very wealthy, privatization of social security and tax credits for companies that send jobs overseas, the recession, a 4.9 trillion dollar addition to the deficit, or they can move forward with us," Owens said.
Doug Hoffman says he's fighting for the heart and soul of the Republican Party, backed by grassroots support.
Republican Scozzafava freed her supporters but, it's unclear where her votes will go now.
As a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage candidate with moderate views on tax issues, she appealed to some Democrats and Independent voters who could peal away towards the Owens camp, however, the majority of her voters identified with the GOP and their support could benefit Hoffman who now has the backing of national party leaders.
The unusual battle has sparked much debate over whether the results are evidence of a rift in the GOP or just a anomaly resulting from unique circumstances that allowed local republican leaders to hand-pick a nominee, rather than voters.
House Minority Leader John Boehner weighed in today saying political rebellion among conservatives is bigger than most people imagine.
"They don't have a primary in New York. If they had a primary this would have been resolved weeks ago but, what has happened over the last two or three weeks, basically has been the Republican primary," Boehner said.
It's election day in New Jersey, and though the sun is shining - not much is clear. The polls put the match up between incumbent Democrat Governor Jon Corzine and his Republican challenger Chris Christie at a dead heat. That's a significant shift from this time last year when President Obama carried the Garden State by a 15 point margin. Obama has invested time in this race, trying to buoy Corzine going into the homestretch, but any boost has yet to surface in the polls. After voting today, Corzine sounded optimistic. "I feel like we've got a lot of momentum coming from behind," Corzine continued, "the only poll that counts is the one that's going on right now between 6 and 8."
The Christie camp remains upbeat as well, encouraged by what it sees as a swing away from Corzine and toward Christie in recent polling data. The candidate is confidently predicting victory. "I believe the Republican party will be much stronger tomorrow because we will have a Republican governor of New Jersey." To make that a reality, Christie will have to do what no Republican has been able to accomplish since 1993 - unseating an incumbent Democratic governor. Christie says he welcomes the challenge, and sees a win tonight as just a beginning. Christie commented today, "It's also going to place a great deal of responsibility on our party then to govern."
Still in the mix, though not as a top contender, is Independent Chris Daggett. What happens with his supporters today could swing the race in one direction or another. "Unaffiliateds" make up the state's largest pool of registered voters at 2.4 million. It's all the unknowns that will make the New Jersey gubernatorial race such an interesting race to watch when the polls close at 8:00pm EST.
I don't understand why people are calling Tuesday an "off year election". Is 2009 not really a year? Is this Election Day not really an election? For a country that spends a lot of time promoting democracy around the world, our primary(and general election) concern should be about the voting process here in the U.S.
I did a show the other night for about 50 people and I told them there were more people in the audience than had voted in New York City's runoff election. Actually a whopping 8% of eligible voters bothered to exercise their democratic right last month. I was one of the select fee who voted. The bored election officials applauded when I entered the empty polling place.
I love voting. Sometimes I even wave when I leave the voting booth, just to confuse people. "Is that guy running for something?", they probably ask themselves.
In a recent primary in Virginia, the turnout was 3%. 3% is the margin of error in a poll. So it's actually possible no one voted.
I remember a few years ago when there were elections in Haiti, people voted as they were getting shot at. In New York, people don't vote when it's partly cloudy. They complain, "I have to put my coat on, walk two blocks. Do they deliver?"
The media doesn't help when they broadcast polls that tell us who would win if the election were held today. If the election were held today, nobody would vote, because it's not Election Day.
New York City Mayor Bloomberg is so rich he turned down living in the opulent Gracie Mansion. He probably thought, "I'd much rather live in my larger, more expensive home."
Bloomberg has spent more than $85 million in his reelection campaign so far and will probably top $100 million. That's more than the GNP of some developing countries. We would have been better off if Bloomberg just handed the money to us directly. His opponent Bill Thompson has only $6.6 million to spend. When $6.6 million is "only", there's a problem somewhere.
But that's no excuse not to vote. Not only do you have no right to complain if you don't bother to vote, but I propose that elected officials only listen to constituents who voted(for them or anyone else).
So on Tuesday go out there and vote. If past turnout is any indication, there won't be long lines. But it would be better for our country if there were.
The newest Quinnipiac poll out Monday shows the New Jersey gubernatorial race continues to be too close to call. The latest results show Republican challenger Chris Christie at 42 percent, with the Democratic incumbent ,Governor Jon Corzine, at 40 percent. Third-party candidate Chris Daggett continues to poll around 12 percent, and while he isn't a top contender he could have great impact on the two men who are. In that same Quinnipiac poll Daggett supporters were pushed to select a second choice. Thirty-nine percent would go to Corzine, while just 29 percent would shift to Christie. The Daggett factor could have significant impact tomorrow, though Corzine believes Daggett's entry into the race has been positive. "I think Mr. Daggett did everybody a favor by forcing my opponent to try to say something specific, which he hasn't said in 11 months," Corzine remarked in reference to the ads Christie has been running against Daggett in recent weeks.
Corzine is coming off a weekend that attracted thousands to events headlined by President Obama. The top Democrat urged Corzine supporters to recognize that the governor has managed many difficulties during his term. "Change is hard," the president warned, "Corzine didn't promise it was going to be easy - he promised he would wake up every single day thinking about you."
At his events, Corzine also linked Christie to controversial Congressman Joe Wilson, the Republican who shouted "you lie" during President Obama's health care reform address to Congress. Corzine said the two were campaigning together, something the Christie campaign flatly denied. Though Wilson was in New Jersey at an unrelated event, there was no connection between Christie's camp and the Wilson meeting.
Christie remains positive on his final day of campaigning, as he travels across the state on a bus tour. He's stopping to thank supporters and also trying to sway last minute undecideds, the group that could make all the difference on Tuesday. While Corzine has accused him of failing to offer specific solutions, Christie says it's Corzine's record that should be the biggest concern for voters. "Jon Corzine stood in front of the people of New Jersey and made a bunch of promises and he put his hand over his heart and said, 'Citizens of New Jersey, hold me accountable,'" Christie continued, "Well November 3rd is accountability day, let's pick him up and throw him out!"
Political analyst Larry Sabato says that would be a big loss for the administration. "If Corzine loses that, of course, is a major prob for the WH because they've picked the New Jersey's governor's race as the one President Obama can affect." The dozens of supporters who waited in the cold drizzle to cheer Christie outside the Monmouth Country Republican Headquarters Monday seem determined to make that happen.
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